Sales prices of single-family homes and townhouses across Fairfax County will end 2023 relatively flat compared to where they began the year, but condominium prices should see a bigger bump upward.
That’s the conclusion of a new report from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors and Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, which predict 2023 will end with single-family-home prices up an average of 0.7 percent, townhome prices up 0.4 percent and condo prices up 4.3 percent.
In all cases, that will represent something of a breather after two years’ worth of rising prices that, coupled with higher interest rates and an inventory crunch, have made life rough for prospective purchasers.
To prepare the market survey, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors convened experts from different industry sectors to review preliminary forecasts from the Center for Regional Analysis and offer insights into current and near-future market conditions.
Total sales for the year across Fairfax County are expected to be down, down, down – dropping 10 percent year-over-year in the single-family sector; 15 percent among townhouses; and 23 percent for condos, all having more to do with lack of inventory that a lack of purchasers.
Current homeowners are sitting tight on rock-bottom mortgage-interest rates, creating for challenges for buyers. And those current homeowners may not be going anywhere anytime soon.
“It will be hard to justify leaving a home with a refinanced loan below 3 percent for another home with a higher price and a loan rate the could be doubled,” said Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis.
At the same time, it is that lack of inventory that is keeping prices afloat, as buyers have to be willing to part with a reasonable sum to come out a winner in the find-a-home sweepstakes.
The report anticipates 2023 sales across Northern Virginia to be down about 10 to 15 percent from 2022, with overall sales prices up slightly.
“Well-priced units will sell quickly at or near original list price,” notes the report, which covers Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church.
