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Home demand continues to outpace supply across most of Fairfax

Some would-be buyers are on the sidelines and may stay there until spring

The Washington region’s ongoing lack of inventory continues to push some prospective purchasers to wait it out on the sidelines. And Fairfax County is no exception to the rule.

Though up month-over-month, Fairfax’s score on the monthly T3 Home Demand Index shows the county continues to face a lack of prospective purchasers.

The most recent report was issued Nov. 10 by Bright MLS, based on buyer activity in October.

The open-ended scorecard gauges buyer-interest conditions as High with any total above 130; Moderate from 110-129; Steady from 90-109; and Slow from 70-89. Any score less than 70 suggests the market of available homes is limited.

Fairfax’s score of 57 for October was up from 50 one month before, but was well below the score of 91 recorded in October 2022.

By ZIP code, the GazetteLeader’s coverage area in Fairfax was led by Vienna’s 22181 at 64. All other ZIPs in the coverage area were below the countywide total: 22027 (Dunn Loring) at 55; 22180 (Vienna) at 54; 22124 (Oakton) at 44; 22102 (McLean) at 43; 22101 (McLean) at 42; 22182 (Vienna) at 23; and 22066 (Great Falls) at 18.

Arlington scored 104, the lone local jurisdiction to make it up to the “Steady” category for October. Alexandria, which in mid-summer had briefly risen above Arlington to lead the field, was second in the new report at 83, up from 76 a month before. Falls Church was third at 64, down from 72.

The District of Columbia recorded a score of 62, followed by Prince George’s County (60), the city of Fairfax (59), Montgomery County (51), Loudoun County (50) and Frederick County (43).

All 10 jurisdictions were down by double-digit amounts compared to a year ago. The metro-wide score of 57 was down 37 percent from the year before.

A spike in interest rates, lack of inventory, high prices and typical seasonal slowing are headwinds that have caused some buffeting the market at the moment, but “homes are still selling very quickly,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS.

“Some buyers will persevere in the final months of 2023,” she said. “Others will decide to wait until spring, hoping for lower rates and more inventory. Prospective buyers who are in the market this winter should expect some relief, as price appreciation is slowing.”

For full data all the way to the ZIP-code level across the region, see the Website at