It has been nearly four years in the making. And now, the full residual economic impact of COVID is about to make its way to homeowners’ tax bills across Northern Virginia.
Those 2024 tax bills are going to go higher – they never go lower – but exactly where in the stratosphere they land will depend on whether the newly elected (or re-elected) county, city and town officials and the local governments they lead are willing to cut back and equally share the pain.
Cratering valuations of office buildings will continue to push the tax burden onto homeowners, who in some or maybe most jurisdictions will face a double whammy of higher assessed valuations (released in coming weeks) and higher tax rates (set by jurisdictions in May and June).
The only way to blunt that impact would be for the governments to tighten their own belts. But of late they’ve chosen to lavish spending on employees and grandiose visions without much thought to where cutbacks could be made.
Alas, the descent of Northern Virginia into a one-party oligarchy has conditioned voters to be meekly acquiescent. Those voices calling for budget restraint are howling in the wilderness, just as at the national level.
For politicians, it’s easier and much more fun to be Santa than the Grinch. Just keep shoveling money out as fast as you can get the public to give it to you (or, if you’re in Congress, as fast as the Federal Reserve creates it out of thin air).
As those of us who lived through the real-estate crash of 15 years ago can attest, you can always kick the can down the road. But in the end, that only makes the situation worse.
The immutable laws of economic reality ultimately win out – every single time.
