The good news, and it indeed was good news, was that none of the seven candidates vying for two open Arlington County Board slots (six Democrats plus perennial independent Audrey Clement) gave a stinker performance at last week’s Arlington County Civic Federation forum.
Some moments were better, more informed and more nuanced, than others, but no matter who emerges out of the June 20 Democratic primary and thus is all but guaranteed to win the general election, there seems to be a baseline of talent among the options on the table.
While much of the forum was taken up with questions about Missing Middle, the far more important topic was how Arlington is going to address its currently high office-vacancy rate, and the likelihood that office space will be in far less demand going forward than it was in the pre-COVID era.
For a community like Arlington that for decades has so effectively used the commercial-office sector’s flow of tax revenue to fund the local government’s gold-plated aspirations, this shaping up to be a big, big problem.
Empty or half-empty office buildings are a major threat to fiscal stability, and without them filled up, the tax burden is going to continue to be shifted to the residential side of the equation. (You think your tax bills are stratospheric NOW, Arlington homeowners? Just wait.)
Ideas from the candidates ran the gamut, and were not bad – use empty office space for everything from day care to pickleball to agriculture. The suggestion from some (convert commercial space to residential) poses challenges, but surely must be feasible in some situations.
Yet unless those new residential properties come with no kids in them, converting them doesn’t solve the county government’s budget crisis, but exacerbates it, particularly when coupled with the Missing Middle zoning changes. The cost of providing education to those newly crammed into Arlington, let alone all the other services of government they will require, is guaranteed to far outweigh the tax revenue brought in from their real-estate taxes.
There are no clear-cut answers, but there’s no doubt unless a sudden and significant return of workers full-time to the office takes place, Arlington’s economic equilibrium will change in a major way. You heard it here first.
