Winter often is a challenge for the Virginia real-estate market even in the best of times, and the looming colder months may be no exception.
Only about 13 percent of respondents to a monthly tally of industry sentiment think the buyer side of the market will be strong in the commonwealth in three months’ time, and only 4 percent think things will be strong on the sellers’ side.
The Virginia Realtors trade group each month takes the pulse of its membership through an online survey. The most recent one, open from Sept. 25 to Oct. 3, received 1,022 responses, including 775 from Realtor-members who participated in at least one transaction over the preceding months.
Respondents were almost evenly split on where prices will be in three months’ time, with 34 percent thinking they will rise in their areas, 32 percent opining they will fall and 30 percent believing they will stay about the same.
That may actually be positive news compared to historic norms, as typically average sales prices do tend to fall during the mid-winter before picking back up again as spring takes hold.
As for current conditions, the monthly Buyer Activity Index in the new report stood at 37 on a 0-to-100 scale, down from 39 a month before. A total of 17 percent of respondents said buyer interest in their locales was “high” or “very high,” while 44 percent said it was “low” or very low.”
(The index hit its 2023 peak in April at 65, then has fallen five consecutive months.)
The Seller Activity Index stood at 14 in the new data, up from 10 a month before – but only 3 percent of respondents rated seller activity as “high” or “very high” and 74 percent recorded it was “low” or “very low.”
(The seller index has been below 20 on the 0-to-100 scale since last December, owing largely to homeowners contentedly sitting on homes acquired, or refinanced, when mortgage-interest rates were rock bottom.)
The monthly survey is not scientific, but is large enough to present a sense of what Virginia Realtors are seeing in the marketplace, said Abel Opoku-Adjei, a research associate for the organization.
