April marked the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year home-sales declines in the Washington region, as well as the second straight month (and third month in five) of falling median sales prices.
Yet with extremely limited inventory – there are just one-third the single-family homes on the market compared to pre-COVID – the local market seems in no danger of freefall, according to analysis of new data.
A total of 4,207 homes went to closing in April in the Washington region, according to figures reported May 10 by MarketStats by ShowingTime based on listing activity from Bright MLS.
That’s down 33 percent from a year before, a window in which the market had been in full frenzy as buyers attempted to find homes before the full impact of interest-rate hikes hampered their options.
Figures represent transactions in the District of Columbia; Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties and the cities of Fairfax and Falls Church in Virginia; and Montgomery, Prince George’s and Frederick counties in Maryland. Sales were down in all component communities.
When it comes to month-over-month, home sales were up just 0.6 percent from March to April, an anemic springtime increase given historic norms.
“There were bigger gains among single-family homes, though the price of condo sales was down significantly from typical spring sales activity,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS.
After a spurt of activity starting in the summer of 2020, year-over-year sales figures slumped into negative territory starting in September 2021. For 19 of the ensuing 20 months – with a slight exception in November 2021 – year-over-year sales have been down ever since.
But year-over-year median sales prices had remained up until last December, when they dropped for the first time in years. There were increases to start 2023 but then declines resumed in March and April.
For April, the median sales price of $586,000 region-wide was down 1.5 percent from April 2022 figures.
“Single-family, attached townhomes and condos all had lower median sales prices in April 2023 than a year ago,” Sturtevant said.
The decline in median prices, however, was far from universal: Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties and the city of Alexandria saw increases, although in the latter two localities that may have had more to do having a larger percentage of pricier single-family homes in the overall mix.
Prospective buyers did come out in April, snatching up many of the limited number of properties on the market. As a result, the number of active listings – which had been rising (from a very low base) for six months – retreated in April.
While that decline has been most marked in the single-family sector, prospective sellers also are having trouble in the townhouse market, where inventory is down about 45 percent from pre-pandemic levels, and condo market, where it is down 25 percent.
Figures represent most, but not all, homes on the market. All April 2023 figures are preliminary and are subject to revision.
