A stretch of lower mortgage interest rates during 2024 would help to jump-start the region’s springtime home sales, says the president of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR).
“We anticipate that 2024 will bring more choices as lower rates coax more sellers to rejoin the market. This would be positive news, since demand exists,” said Thai-Hung Nguyen of Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate Premier, who is heading the organization’s board of directors for 2024.
Interest rates have declined somewhat in recent weeks, with each dip helping to convince some purchasers – as well as some homeowners looking to sell and buy something else – to get into the market.
Lower interest rates plus more market inventory would provide a jump-start to the spring season, which in good years kicks off in February before building to a crescendo in the March-April-May period. (In great years, the spring season starts with the beginning of the new year in early January. In so-so years, buyer activity is delayed a bit.)
Spiking interest rates in early 2022 were felt like a frying pan to the face across the local and national real-estate market. Some prospective purchasers opted out, not willing to commit to a much higher monthly cost for a typical home, while some potential sellers stayed put, cheefully sitting on historically low interest rates obtained during the pandemic.
But the logjam may be starting to break up.
“ As people adjust to higher rates – and as they drop some – I expect to see more thawing in the marketplace and smaller monthly [year-over-year] home-sale declines, but consumers should be prepared for home prices remaining high,” said NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin.
December home sales across the NVAR catchment area proved emblematic of 2023 as a whole – soft sales, low inventory and higher prices.
Data for the region, which includes Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church:
• The number of closed sales in December 2023 was 894 units, down 16.3 percent compared to December 2022. The five-year average for December closed sales is 1,475.
• The average sales price for a home in December 2023 was $804,126, an increase of 13.7 percent from December 2022.
• The total sold volume in December 2023 was $722,827,632, down 5.3 percent compared to December 2022.
• The number of active listings in December 2023 was 986, down 25.6 percent compared to December 2022. The number of new listings was 559.
• The total number of new pending sales in October 2023 was 773, a 3-percent decrease compared to December 2022.
See more about the local housing market at NVAR.com/public.
