Higher sales prices were offset by a decline in total home sales across Northern Virginia, with the resulting overall sales volume of $12.5 billion for the year ranking ninth all-time, according to new figures.
Despite a 4.2-percent increase in average sales prices across the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) coverage area for the year, the 20.8-percent decline in 2023 knocked total sales volume to its lowest point since 2017, according to a GazetteLeader analysis of NVAR data.
That 2023 volume – exactly $12,516,181,258, based on preliminary data – was down from about $15.2 billion in 2022 and a record $18.9 billion in 2021.
Figures represent transactions in Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church.
The figures for 2023 come as no surprise to those in the industry, as the local real-estate market was held back by both higher interest rates (which scared off some prospective buyers) and by a lack of inventory largely due to homeowners not wishing to part with their ultra-low-interest mortgages obtained during the early COVID era.
The 15,958 transactions for the year represented a decline of 21.7 percent from the 20,398 sales in 2022, which was a drop of 23.8 percent from the 26,763 sales in 2021.
Although 2021 proved the most recent market peak, it did not represent the all-time sales high in Northern Virginia. That was recorded in 2004 during the national real-estate bubble, when there were 32,735 sales at an average sales price of $441,253. That worked out to a still-standing record sales volume of $15.7 billion.
According to a GazetteLeader analysis of historical data, the Northern Virginia real-estate market first passed the $1 billion mark in total sales volume in 1978, surpassed $2 billion in 1985, reached $5 billion in 1998 and stood above $10 billion for four years – 2003-04-05-06 – before dropping back below that figure for seven years before surpassing it again in 2014. The market has not been below $10 billion in annual sales since.
In terms of average sales price, the local area first topped $100,000 in 1981, surpassed $200,000 in 1991, and topped $500,000 in 2005.
Since 1975, there have been year-over-year sales increases 28 years, with declines in 18. In terms of average prices, year-over-year declines have been recorded in only five years (1990, 1992, 2008, 2009 and 2016).
All figures are based on data from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors, Bright MLS and MarketStats by ShowingTime, and may differ from other sources.
More data from the NVAR area from 2023:
• The average sales price of single-family homes rose 2.9 percent to $1,104,759 while attached-home prices rose 4 percent to $548,099 and condominium prices rose 4.4 percent to $439,171.
• A total of 3,204 properties – one in five – sold for more than $1 million, including 242 selling for more than $2.5 million and 15 for more than $5 million.
• Sellers received, on average, 100.3 percent of original listing price, down slightly from 2022.
• It took, on average, 19 days between a home being listed and a sales contract being ratified, unchanged from 2022.
• Conventional mortgages represented the method of financing transactions in 10,211 cases, followed by cash (3,233) and VA-backed loans (1,711).
• Among single-family detached homes, average sales prices were $740,393 for those with two or fewer bedrooms; $792,943 for those with three and $1,182,713 for those with four or more.
