Arlington is back on top for a second month in a row in terms of home-buyer interest in the Washington region, but like the rest of the metro area, that interest saw a big drop from August into September.
That’s according to the Bright MLS T3 Home-Demand Index, which uses a variety of data points and a proprietary formula to settle on a monthly score for buyer interest all the way down to the ZIP-code level. It is a forward-looking counterpart to rear-view-mirror monthly sales data.
Figures for September were reported Oct. 11.
The open-ended scorecard gauges buyer-interest conditions as High with any total above 130; Moderate from 110-129; Steady from 90-109; and Slow from 70-89. Any score less than 70 suggests the market of available homes is limited.
Arlington scored 90 based on September buyer behavior, down from 126, 129 and 139 for August, July and June, respectively. Despite the progressive drops, the community’s score of 90 was still good enough to lead the regional pack.
Among the county’s ZIP codes, scores were 135 in 22206; 106 in 22213; 102 in 22202; 101 in 22204; 100 in 22209; 93 in 22201; 91 in 22203; 64 in 22206; and 63 in 22207.
Alexandria, which in mid-summer had briefly risen above Arlington to lead the field, was second in the new report at 76, down from 104 a month before. Falls Church was third at 72, down from 117.
Fairfax County scored 48, down from 79; the city of Fairfax was at 47, down from 70; and Loudoun County was at 42, down from 72. (Prince William County is not part of the monthly survey.)
In parts of the region outside Virginia, the District of Columbia was at 62, down from 71; Prince George’s County was at 51, down from 83; Montgomery County was at 39, down from 65; and Frederick County was at 30, down from 55.
Challenges with both affordability and availability continue to keep some prospective buyers on the sidelines, but there are other reasons, too, said Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant.
“Demand will be held back as well since fewer buyers may qualify or willingly adjust their budget to a smaller or lower-priced home,” she said. “Additionally, the decreases in rental rates in many parts of the region may persuade buyers to pause their pursuit of home-owenrship, at least temporarily.”
That lower demand could bump up supply, though that is unlikely to lead to a major price correction, Sturtevant said.
“And when mortgage rates start to drop, the pressure on prices will only grow as buyers return,” she said.
For full data all the way to the ZIP-code level across the region, see the Website at homedemandindex.com.
