Do you want the bad news, or the slightly not-so-bad news, about the limited number of housing choices available to prospective purchasers across the Washington region?
To give you both:
• The bad news is that the number of listings coming to the market in September’s figures were well below those of a year before, down 33 percent to 4,780 across the Washington region.
• The good news, for prospective purchasers at least, is that the number of listings coming onto the market is outpacing the number of new pending sales (3,888 in September), which will help to build inventory as the market transitions from autumn to winter.
That’s according to Bright MLS, which on Oct. 11 released September’s sales data for the Washington metro area. Its coverage area includes the District of Columbia; Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church in Virginia; and Montgomery, Prince George’s and Frederick counties in Maryland.
Across the catchment area, a total of 3,723 properties went to closing in September, down 19 percent from a year before. The median sales price, however, was up 3.4 percent year-over-year to $550,000.
Can prices keep on rising in the local area? The answer may be no, Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant said, noting that increasing prices and whopping jumps in interest rates have caused the monthly payment for a typical home to nearly double early-COVID times.
“Some buyers have been able to use pandemic-era savings and accumulated housing equity,” she said. “But now, savings rates have fallen and affordability is at an all-time low. The metro area may be close to hitting a price ceiling.”
(Remain calm, homeowners: “A major price correction isn’t likely, as inventory will remain low and keep prices firm,” Sturtevant said.)
Year-over-year sales across the region have now fallen 22 consecutive months, and the month-over-month drop-off from August to September was a sharp dip approaching 19 percent.
“The slowdown in activity reflects higher mortgage rates, low supply and a typical fall-season cooldown,” Sturtevant said.
Year-over-year median sales prices are now up four months in a row after falling the preceding three months, but were down 6 percent from August to September – with single-family homes seeing the sharpest month-over-month drop (7.3%).
Year-over-year sales were down in all localities except Alexandria, where they were up 5.4 percent to 156, and Falls Church, where they were flat at 11. Median sales prices were higher in all jurisdictions, with the increases ranging from 0.1 percent in the District of Columbia to more than 20 percent in Arlington and Alexandria (likely caused in those two jurisdictions by a combination of upward pressure on sales and a larger percentage of single-family homes in the overall mix compared to a year before).
